Trade review and tips for trading the euro

The price test of 1.1769 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro and resulting in a decline of more than 25 points.

The published data on industrial production in France exceeded expectations, which only partially helped the euro hold near its weekly high. Nevertheless, despite the favorable signals from France, the overall political situation remains mixed.

During the U.S. session, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index report is expected, but it is unlikely to significantly affect market sentiment. Small business confidence is an important barometer of the economy. Small enterprises form the backbone of the U.S. economy, and their optimism is directly linked to investment, hiring, and ultimately economic growth. Therefore, while it is unlikely that the NFIB report will become the decisive factor, traders should be prepared for surprises. The release may trigger short-term volatility, especially if actual results deviate sharply from forecasts. If the data point to stability in the small business sector, the U.S. dollar could strengthen; otherwise, pressure on the dollar will persist.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today on a move toward 1.1783 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1826. At 1.1826, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Further euro growth is possible if U.S. data turn out weak. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1752 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1783 and 1.1826.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1752 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1712, where I will exit sales and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move from the level. Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1783 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1752 and 1.1712.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.