The British pound, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar were traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. However, to be fair, full-scale pullbacks did not materialize. I traded the Japanese yen using the Momentum strategy.

As expected, the absence of significant fundamental data from the eurozone allowed the euro and pound to strengthen, as well as the Australian dollar. However, demand for risk assets remains clearly restrained, and there are objective reasons for this.

A wave of U.S. economic data is approaching the financial markets, capable of adjusting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and influencing inflation expectations. The focus will be on retail sales figures, a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a substantial share of the U.S. economy. The retail sales report is expected to provide insight into the strength of consumer demand. Steady growth may indicate persistent inflation and, consequently, push the Fed toward further tightening.

In addition, investors will closely watch the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which reflects the state of the manufacturing sector in New York State. An improvement in the index could indicate a recovery in manufacturing output, while a decline may point to a deeper recession. Equally important will be industrial production data, which will offer a broader picture of the state of the manufacturing sector nationwide.

The series of key releases will conclude with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which reflects Americans' confidence in the economy. A high level of confidence may encourage greater consumer spending, while low confidence may lead to its reduction.

In the case of strong data, I will focus on implementing the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1698 could push the euro toward 1.1730 and 1.1770.

Selling on a breakout below 1.1666 could send the euro toward 1.1635 and 1.1601.

GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3555 could push the pound toward 1.3587 and 1.3615.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3540 could send the pound toward 1.3510 and 1.3479.

USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 147.00 could push the dollar toward 147.35 and 147.59.
• Selling on a breakout below 146.70 could lead to dollar sell-offs toward 146.40 and 146.00.

Mean Reversion Strategy (reversal) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1700 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1662 followed by a return to this level.

GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3565 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3533 followed by a return to this level.

AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6523 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6495 followed by a return to this level.

USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3809 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3786 followed by a return to this level.