Macroeconomic Report Analysis:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday—not in Germany, the UK, the EU, or the US. Recall that during the first two weeks of September, traders had a fairly rich flow of macroeconomic data at their disposal. Almost all of them showed that the US economy continues to deteriorate. Only GDP is rising, and that's artificially. How much longer it will keep growing on the back of Trump's trade war is unknown. In any case, market participants have a low opinion of the results delivered by the new US administration.

Fundamental Events Analysis:

The only fundamental event on Monday is a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. However, it's worth noting that the latest ECB meeting took place just this Thursday. No important decisions were made. The central bank hinted that the next key rate cut may not happen soon, as there are no reasons for it now. The central bank remains concerned about accelerating inflation due to the trade war, but it does not anticipate significant inflationary pressures in the medium term. There are no reasons to lower rates, since inflation remains around 2% and the risks are to the upside. The ECB will only resume monetary policy easing if inflation starts to slow below 2%.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may resume upward movement, but new buy signals are needed for this. For the euro, if it breaks through the 1.1737–1.1745 area, growth toward the 1.1808 target will continue. A bounce from 1.1737–1.1745 would allow considering shorts, but without a substantial decline. For the pound sterling, a bounce from 1.3529–1.3543 or a break above 1.3574–1.3590 would allow the opening of long positions, while consolidation below 1.3529–1.3543 would allow for shorts. In both cases, long positions are preferable. Monday may turn out to be quite a boring day with flat movement and low volatility.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.