2025.12.2401:02:19UTC+00BoJ Eyes Further Tightening, Warns of Risks: October Minutes

In recent deliberations, the Bank of Japan's board members collectively recognized that real interest rates currently remain low. They suggested that if the anticipated growth and inflation outlooks are achieved, the central bank should proceed with incrementally increasing policy rates and adjusting monetary policies accordingly. The minutes from the October 29–30 meeting highlighted the importance of evaluating developments "without preconceptions," especially in light of the high uncertainty surrounding international trade dynamics and evolving policy landscapes. Some board members differed in their views regarding the timing of potential rate hikes. One member indicated the proximity of a suitable period for an increase but urged a cautious approach, considering the ambiguities in U.S. tariff strategies and the implications of Japan’s new government. Another member advocated for swifter action, pointing out that yen depreciation and the possibility of economic overheating in the U.S. could exacerbate inflation, though there remained challenges related to U.S. labor market discrepancies and possible adjustments in capital markets. A third member noted that the prerequisites for policy normalization appeared substantially met but stressed the need to verify whether inflation was consistently robust. Several members also underscored the importance of determining whether moderate wage and price hikes were enduring.