2025.08.1901:21:36UTC+00Kiwi Dollar Holds in Tight Range

On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar remained steady at approximately $0.593 as traders awaited the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) upcoming interest rate decision. Market expectations are set for a 25 basis point reduction to 3%, contributing to a cumulative easing of 250 basis points during the current cycle. This anticipation is supported by a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter increase in producer output prices in Q2, which marked a deceleration from the 2.1% rise in Q1 and fell short of the forecasted 1% growth. Analysts indicate that, while policy settings hover near neutral, the impacts of earlier rate cuts are still permeating through the economy. Despite this, the presence of sluggish economic growth and excess capacity might necessitate further easing. Additionally, two-year swap rates are at their lowest since early 2022, making them susceptible to any unexpected hawkish moves. On the global front, focus is also drawn to significant developments such as China's policy rate decision, a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell that might provide insights into US monetary policy, and critical US–Russia discussions that could affect market sentiment.